Not to use injuries as an excuse – we all have to write through them, you know – but they killed my worst-to-first column last year.
When Tom Brady blew out his knee in the regular season opener, it blew up my prediction of a Patriots Super Bowl title and enabled Tony Sparano and the Dolphins to ride the Wildcat formation to the AFC East title.
When Plaxico Burress shot himself in the thigh, it made the Giants so one-dimensional my pick to oppose the Patriots was taken out in the second round of the playoffs by the Eagles.
With Brady’s throwing shoulder already suspect and Burress in prison, there’s no way I’d play that again, right? Let me think about it.
The order of finish, from worst to first, in the last uncapped NFL year:
32. Raiders: With the first pick in the NFL draft, the Raiders select – call security. It looks like a coach slugged owner Al Davis for trading the pick to the Patriots.
31. Chiefs: To warm up for the tumultuous season rookie head coach Todd Haley fired his offensive coordinator.
30. Lions: After saying he would change the culture head coach Jim Schwartz is making the same low percentage decisions as his loser predecessors. Starting rookie quarterback Matt Stafford with that offensive line on opening day is almost criminal.
29. Rams: The best they can do is win eight games which probably won’t convince ownership from moving back to the Los Angeles market.
28. Bills: One of these years frugal owner Ralph Wilson is going to pay for a real head coach, not a bargain-basement leader like Dick Jauron.
27. Buccaneers: Name the starting quarterback for the Bucs. Time’s up. It’s Byron Leftwich, and that tells you about the challenge facing yet another rookie head coach in Raheem Morris.
26. Seahawks: Jim Mora Jr. never has done much for me. And he won’t do much for the ‘Hawks unless Matt Hasselbeck stays healthy.
25. Redskins: The only real question here is who loses his job first – quarterback Jason Campbell or head coach Jim Zorn?
24. Broncos: Brian Dawkins came here for the money, the blue sky and a new challenge. Two out of three isn’t bad.
23. Browns: Browns fans already know Eric Mangini is no Bill Belichick.
22. Jets: Think new head coach Rex Ryan spoke with his pop, Buddy, before hanging his hat on rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez?
21. Bengals: With Carson Palmer entering another season gimpy, it really is going to be a season of Hard Knocks for the frugal Bengals.
20. Saints: Except for the opener they won’t sack or stop anyone until defensive ends Will Smith and Charles Grant both return from looming four-game suspensions.
19. 49ers: If Mike Singletary could do the draft over, unsigned rookie pick Michael Crabtree would fall right off the board.
18. Panthers: In a weak division the Panthers could contend for a playoff berth if they didn’t have Jake Delhomme.
17. Texans: No matter what Gary Kubiak does, the Texans always are last in the AFC South.
16. Jaguars: They run the ball and play defense, but cannot throw.
15. Dolphins: Face it – the Fish really weren’t that good last year. Tony Sparano just got the most of them.
14. Cowboys: Wade Phillips will be gone as soon as Jerry Jones finds someone to buy the naming rights to his new stadium.
13. Vikings: Adrian Peterson, Brad Childress and Brett Favre – name a goldie, an oldie and a golden oldie.
12. Packers: Aaron Rodgers will put up numbers but the defense isn’t divisionally tough enough for the Bears and the Vikings.
11. EAGLES: If Donovan McNabb can’t do it, maybe Michael Vick can. With a Charmin soft schedule, Andy Reid may be one wild card loss from having the lock to his office changed.
10. Falcons: Quarterback Matt Ryan (Penn Charter High) takes another step, just not the quantum leap he made in his rookie season.
9. Chargers: The United Football League’s Las Vegas Locomotives might be able to win the AFC West, where the Lightning Bolts rule.
8. Colts: Peyton Manning doesn’t have Marvin Harrison or Tony Dungy but there is enough talent to stay in the Super Bowl hunt.
7. Bears: Jay Cutler is no Jim McMahon but the Bears always seem to have enough talent to make a run at the division pennant.
6. Cardinals: An easy schedule and ‘Super’ confidence will go a long way for Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald, the league’s top quarterback-wide receiver tandem
5. Steelers: They will go as far as Mike Tomlin, Troy Polamalu and Ben Roethlisberger take them.
4. Titans: Jeff Fisher has been at it longer than any active coach. And Kerry Collins has been at it longer than any starting quarterback who hasn’t won a Super Bowl.
3. Ravens: Coach John Harbaugh will fight his way out of the wild card round to get here before the same old, same old offensive questions end the ride.
2. Giants: Tom Coughlin has had enough time to figure out how Eli Manning can win without Plaxico Burress.
1. Patriots: Tom Brady is back and Belichick is coaching him. Enough said.
To contact Bob Grotz, e-mail bgrotz@comcast.net.
